Global Shipments Slightly Decline, Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate Rangebound [SMM Commentary]

Published: Jan 13, 2025 16:58

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Today, iron ore fluctuated upward. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 768.5 yuan/mt, with a daily increase of 1.92%. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm for shipments. Steel mills remained cautious, purchasing as needed. Today's market transaction atmosphere was average. Transaction prices rose by 10-15 yuan/mt WoW compared to last Friday's prices. This week's shipment volume declined significantly, but considering the high shipment volume for the entire month of December, January's port arrivals are expected to remain at a high level, and iron ore supply continues to exert pressure on ore prices. Given the market's potential anticipation of the end of restocking being priced in early, caution is advised regarding the risk of ore prices pulling back after a rebound...

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Today, Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 768.5 yuan/mt, up 1.92% for the day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm for selling. Steel mills remained cautious, purchasing as needed. Market trading sentiment was moderate today. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 770-775 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from last Friday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were around 790 yuan/mt, also up 10-15 yuan/mt from last Friday. The latest cycle's total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 28.78 million mt, down 10.3% WoW. Among them, Australian shipments were 18.11 million mt, up slightly by 0.7% WoW; Brazilian shipments were 5.71 million mt, down significantly by 25.1% WoW. SMM's total iron ore port arrivals in China were 26.89 million mt, up slightly by 1.63% WoW. Although shipments declined significantly this cycle, considering the high shipment volumes in December, January port arrivals are expected to remain high, continuing to exert pressure on ore prices. Given the market's potential anticipation of restocking completion, caution is advised against the risk of ore prices pulling back after a rebound.

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